HIP-4 Round 1 · Post-Mortem

BTC > $78,213 · Settled 2026-05-03 06:00 UTC · Outcome NO · Coins #0 / #1
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Volume

USDH (#0 + #1)

Trades

unique tids

Traders

unique addresses

Fills

maker + taker rows

Total Fees

all routed via builders

Wealth Transfer

winners' gain ≈ losers' loss

YES (#0) — Trade extremes

NO (#1) — Trade extremes

YES Implied Probability vs BTC Mark Price (1-min)

PnL Distribution

Top Trader Patterns — buy/sell timing vs BTC mark price

Each colored series = one of the top 5 winners. Triangles: ▲ buy, ▼ sell. Y axis is the trade price (NO=#1 prob of NO winning, YES=#0 prob of YES winning). BTC mark on right axis (yellow).

Top 10 Winners (closed-out traders, real users only)

User Side PnL Volume Avg Buy Buy Range Biggest Trade

Top 10 Losers (closed-out traders, real users only)

User Side PnL Volume Avg Buy Buy Range Biggest Trade

Builder Leaderboard (round 1 · #0 + #1 · click "Earned" for fill detail)

Label Address Volume Share Bought Sold Earned bps Users

Hourly Volume + Trades

Cross-Coin Activity of Top 10 HIP-4 Winners

For each top HIP-4 winner, breakdown of their volume across all coins (BTC, ETH, HIP-3 markets, …). Reveals whether they're HIP-4 specialists or diversified traders.

Trader HIP-4 PnL Total Volume HIP-4 % BTC fills BTC vol Other coins Top non-HIP-4 coin

Arbitrage Timeline — YES + NO sum vs $1.00

When YES + NO ≠ $1.00, an arbitrage exists. Spikes above $1 = "sell both" arb. Below $1 = "buy both" arb.

Top Arbitrageurs (traded both #0 and #1)

User Gross Vol |Net Pos| Gross/Net PnL

Top Makers (PnL from providing liquidity)

User Fills Volume Maker PnL

Top Takers (directional bets)

User Fills Volume Taker PnL